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Succeed in Debt Consolidation

Do you wonder how you should consolidate your debt successfully?

No doubt, Debt Consolidation might help with savings on interest payment and debt imageget out of debt faster. There are certain facts that would surely help you succeed in a debt consolidation program.

Today, our Featured Author ‘Sharell Crawford’ revealed some important tips on Debt Consolidation. You can also explore 'internet first get-out-of-debt community' - Debt Consolidation Care' that provides free debt counseling to pay off your debt..

Tips to Succeed in Debt Consolidation

Only since you have signed up for a debt consolidation program does not suggest that your debt problems would disappear like magic. A debt consolidation professional would perform plenty of tasks to assist you to get rid of your debt. However, the entire procedure still needs some involvement from your side. Following are some tips that you must stick with in order to ensure a successful debt consolidation program:

1) Select a company prudently

The initial step to become successful in debt consolidation is making a well-informed decision regarding the company you choose. Ask questions to the company such as “How much do you charge for your services?” “How does your debt consolidation program function?” and “Are you licensed?” Confirm with the Better Business Bureau to find out if there are numerous unsettled grievances against the company. If you can, gather some recommendations from other debtors who have been successful with the company.

2) Follow the program till the end

The fastest technique to go wrong with a debt consolidation program is to leave prior to the conclusion of the program. If you wish to get the total advantage of debt consolidation, you should follow your program till the time your debt is entirely paid off. Obviously, continuing with the program is dependent on some advances accomplished.

3) Make timely payments

At present, you have the opportunity to fix your payment routines. Debt consolidation usually operates within your budget for arranging a monthly payment that is manageable for you. Therefore, there is no justification for skipped payments. If you are not making timely payments, you might be dismissed from the program.

4) Ensure that your creditors receive the payments on time


There is no fault with counterchecking with your creditors to ensure the debt consolidator is making timely payments to them. If your credit card provider has a computerized number that allows you to communicate with customer service for account details, always have that number readily available. In the end, it is your credit. Delayed payments eventually harm your credit and not the debt consolidator.

5) Don’t be scared and quit

Prior to making a commitment to a debt consolidation agency, just ensure you have the liberty to terminate your contract at any moment when it is suitable. Subsequently, if you start to feel that the debt consolidator is not fulfilling your requirements, for instance, they’re not making payments on time, you should not hesitate to terminate the contract. However, always ensure that your reason for terminating the contract is valid since your creditors might not be ready to approve another.

6) Stop acquiring new debt

Your debt consolidation program is only meant for the debt you have when the program commences. If you acquire further debt at the time when you are attempting to repay your earlier debt, it might lead you towards failure. You might not incorporate the new debt into the program and carrying further debt would reduce the amount of money you need to put forward for your present consolidation program. Just hang around till the time your program is finished prior to acquiring new debt and stay cautious about this even at that point.


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The bubble’s effect!

the bubble effectThe term ‘bubble effect’ is broadly used for contingencies relative to volatility in the asset prices, which set uncertainty in the financial markets and economy. The bubble theory consists of bubble formation and bubble bursting.

Bubbles formation usually attributed to financial assets, markets, system and economy, the recent real-estate fiasco is an apt example of bubble formation and bursting.

Can you predict the bubble?

Predictions are subsets of contingencies. Moreover to predict the existing bubble is quite difficult, if possible. Some traders do believe that an asset is overpriced, but others do not!

It’s the bubble-burst that trigger reckless chaos’ thereby rendering setbacks can only be analyzed later, and couldn’t be predicted before. This is the reason’ some economists deny the existence of the bubbles.

Bubble Formation

Just few years passing without any serious economic troubles, yield a false sense of complacency among financial players. The roots of the crises always lie in the past. Similarly, the bubbles have formed with the fictitious valuations in medium to long-term.

Speculation is primarily blamed for bubble effect, due to the dramatic surge and burst of the bubble prices. With lack of accurate facts and figures, it’s become difficult to accumulate the data to reach the precise conclusion, thanks to lack of transparency and the window dressing for personal or political interests of authorities.

Varying Effects

Uncertain and highly volatile prices during bubble, severely effect allocation of resources in the economy. Investor’s confidence in efficiency of the market reaches their lowest levels that result into hoarding of investment resources.

Basic Strategic Review

Discrepancies due to system loopholes instead of fundamentals put traditional economic theory in a clumsy situation. Lack of reliable figures prompt caution among smart investors and it should be.

As bubbles do distort resource distribution, it is important to watch out and determine’ how monetary authorities decide to deal with existing bubbles in the market.

In several cases, steps have been undertaken by authorities ironically become bubble-blowers and the mistakes may get repeated, for example’ the near zero interest rate levels to increase credit flow and to urge homeowners to go for adjustable interest rate mortgages, which can set ‘mortgage holders’ to suffer when rates will need to readjust higher.

Finally, One simple trick to protect from effect of bubble burst is by diversifying investment allocation.

Economic research and analysis are integral parts of the investment decision-making. The important fact to remember before concluding is that ‘You are never completely in control of the factors effecting your investments, smart investors need to prepare for what they can't control by understanding the smart basics.’

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Financial and Investment Review

Financial Scenario - The Crisis Phase

financial scenario imageThe Last year’s (2008) financial meltdown has obliterated long term accumulative gains of the investors, no sector of the economy escaped unhurt. All investment segments whether traditional or alternative suffered with severe value erosion. So, the crisis can be classified as systematic risk because it affected the entire market and cannot be avoided through diversification.

The average individual taxpayers have suffered the most, with cease on salary hikes and companies firing employees as cost cutting drives, many individuals left financial broke. Also with wealth erosion in investments, rising debt burdens and tight credit situations, many people including senior workers or retirees keep looking for work to keep their ends meet.

The financial crisis strikes unfortunately at the time of US elections. Aggressive opinions and hot debates on the crisis took the center stage. The ousted bush administration has taken some hasty steps, without much thinking. This is a strange fact that many acts from the authorities to use the public money could surely be considered as manipulative and without any precise explanation.

Why do people invest?

The money saved in a savings account merely earn interest at rate that don’t even keep up with inflation. Many individuals want to invest money somewhere just to beat inflation. There are two basic ways to earn money’ One is in exchange of labor either physical or mental and the other by making money with the money, like from business, investing or trading.

Stock Markets - Investment Paradigm

Investors casually use forecasts and probabilities for investing in stocks markets. Different quantitative models have been built to calculate future estimates. Valuations are calculated on medium to long-term growth estimates.

Determining future is a slippery concept when applied to financial markets, as evident by the present crisis phase and other similar phases before. One should not be only dependent on the estimates as conditions may change in a short notice.


Many experts use the term ‘risk just too informally and rarely use the term ‘uncertainty, if they are still using it. Traders keep looking for the facts that confirm their biased beliefs and avoid for the facts that would clash them.

One must remember, anything can happen in the stock markets, irrespective of any theory or analysis.

An average investor lacks patience required to pass tough times. The emotions, perceptions, tides of hope, greed, and fear among the investors govern the short-term returns generated in the markets. The emotional factors curtail or reduce the core of economic reality, and in such an environment, investors may take wrong decisions.

It always help investors to pre-determine the time period for investment, Patience is a virtue, the term suited perfectly for investing!

Successful investing simply based on the reviewing of facts over quantitative estimates. The return on stocks has proven to be connected to the reasonable expectations. The initial dividend yield’ (annual dividend each year relative to a share price) a crucial but belittled factor in realizing stock returns. Regular and reasonable rate of earnings growth, although hardly certain, is relatively stable. U.S. Corporate earnings have grown with remarkable consistency at the rate of the GDP. There have been nothing like radiation effects of the crisis in long-term investment returns.

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Quantity Easing?


The concept behind Quantity Easing!


quantity easingQuantitative Easing (QE), the term used for aggressive monetary measures undertaken by the central bank. Measures which usually covered under the ambit of monetary policy, like’ controlling supply of money, availability of money and cost of money or interest rate.

During normal economic conditions central bank primarily support the economy by adjusting interest rates. Similarly, in case of liquidity shortage, central bank simply decrease the interest rates to increase cash flows in the system.

When central bank cannot lower interest rates any more, it can attempt to provide the financial system with new money through quantitative easing, like now’ after the US central bank Federal Reserve lowered the interest rates to near zero levels since Dec’08.

The Process of Quantity Easing

With exclusive powers vetted by the government, the central bank turned on the printing presses, to flood the market with enough cash or liquidity while trying to reboot the economic system under Quantity Easing process.

Theorists believe that it may be possible to increase the quantity of money. The typical way to do this is for the central bank to buy assets in exchange for money. Practically, the quantitative easing process focused on buying securities (like government or banking debt, mortgage-backed securities or even equities) from banks with money to ease pressure on the banks by giving them extra dose of capital.

Now, the question arises, how the central bank gets money to buy all these debts or securities?

The expert opinions may vary and little controversial. The simple answer is that central bank can print more money to supply in the system or it doesn’t even need to turn on the printing press. Central bank can just increase the size of banks’ accounts in its balance sheet.

The accounts kept by banks with the central bank named as reserves, all banks have to hold mandatory reserves from their available funds at the central bank. So, during quantitative easing, central bank builds up excess reserves for banks.

When banks swap their illiquid securities for reserves, the size of their balance sheets shrink. Concerned to keep their own balance sheets static during economic pressures’ they usually start lending to end-borrowers and start putting more liquidity into the economy.

Central banks, to some extent have been engaged in quantity easing from the end of last year. The US Fed publicly uncovered a range of planned initiatives for acquiring securities from the banking system, they might not call the term clearly but there has been a lot of buzz regarding Quantity Easing for Fed actions to contain the economic crisis.

Quantity Easing and Money Supply

Quantity easing is another method of increasing the money supply. Its aim is to increase money flows in the economy, when the normal process of cutting interest rates worked no more, most obviously when interest rates are already low and it’s impossible to cut them further.

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Monetary System Ft. Banking

monetary system featuring bankingMoney’ as widely accepted medium of exchange consists of tangibles like currency notes and coins, or intangibles like a bank deposit, thanks to the concept of Fiat Money over the old commodity money system also called barter system. Presently, almost all monetary transactions involve transfer of bank deposits.

Fiat Money: Money as paper vouchers and coins have no value in itself, the Government as prime authority of the nation, made money as legal tender by official order and law. So, fiat money is the money that has the value to transact freely ‘by government authorization’ and include currency, coins and all government-issued tokens of exchange.

The term Bank usually refers to any financial institution that is licensed by government to accept deposits and issue credit money through loans.

Debt based monetary system

The monetary system currently followed by the nation often described as debt based, which means debt being used to create and supply money in the economy. According to the debt theory’ Banks create credit by lending money to borrowers and forward to industries, consumers and governments. This credit kept expanding in the broader economy, until ‘if ever such time all the loans get repaid.

Credit in the financial system has become what the blood in human body, thanks to the large network of our banking system.

You may already heard the traditional theory provided by many authors that total money supply created by Fed (by printing currency) is lower than 10% and the other 90% or more money is created by private banks.

Do banks really create money?

The experts’ opinions vary between two theories’ one affirming and other declining that private banks do create money or not.

While many experts confirm the theory of credit money creation by banks. As they thoroughly describe, how base money created by the Fed circulates in the economy and increase the money supply drastically or how banks create money out of thin air, just Google the italic phrase and see how they push the concept with examples.

The money creation theory is based on the assumption that money supply is the sum of base money circulating in the economy with each and every transaction from individual to individual.

Base money: As many theorists believe, the monstrous piles of loans by banks have been issued over the base of minuscule (in comparison) money supply by the fed. This initial money supply actually created and issued by the central bank, generally termed as base money.

A Brief Analysis

No doubt, private banks increase money circulation but they can’t create money and if they ever independently try to create money with unaccountable debt, the outcome will surely be as disastrous like the Individual Investment bankers, those cease to exist from the beginning of the present economic crisis due to unaccountable debt in billions of US dollars.

Surely banks have lately reached the line of fire but were saved by the setbacks to the big financial institutions, hope the lessons were so shocking to forget forever.

Under the Fed regulation there are less chances that any bank consider creating bulk of unsecured credit money, the fed support is the oxygen for the banking system to breathe.

Simply, in the current liquidity crisis worldwide, banks are in trouble to increase credit flows or say money supply. They haven’t created money to solve their problem and central banks are flooding newly created money in the financial system.

Bankers can pressurize the Fed to increase money supply with the political interests but that’s the separate issue, from the topic of financial analysis.
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The Fed role in Monetary System - 2

Fed Chairman Ben BernankeMoving forward from the last article ‘The Monetary System - 1: Money Supply’. Today you can explore the role of U.S. Federal Reserve in monetary system and money supply, while focusing on the current financial conditions.

The primary role of the Fed (U.S. Federal Reserve) considered as the lender of last resort’ this was the reason why Fed had come into existence in 1913.

Fed controls money supply with its direct action-taking regulatory authority. Which includes, all banks to hold deposits with Fed as minimum reserves requirement (minimum reserves balance is what banks cannot lend out). If fed want to control credit, it raise reserve requirement and to increase lending reduce reserves rate. Fed actions also include, changing the interest rate on money that banks can borrow from the Fed. To pump liquidity, the fed start buying U.S. Treasury securities from the open/secondary markets under open-market operations.

Fed discount rate; the interest rate at which banks or financial institutions may borrow funds from Federal Reserve. As mentioned above, Banks or financial institutions have to keep set percentage of funds as reserve with central bank, this percentage is fixed by the central bank as bank rate. Any Bank, whose reserve dip below the reserve requirement set by the Fed, can use the money provided by central bank to correct their shortage and fed discount rate is the consideration for the usage.

So, the primary weapons of the Fed Armour are three-way’ First, by increasing or decreasing bank reserves, Second’ by changing discount rate and the Third’ by open market operations.

Further, in the present situation of liquidity shortage, where interest rates are almost zero or near zero levels the most common tool used by the fed is open market operations, carried out through FOMC.

Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC): As the name suggests, Federal Reserve’s open market operations are carried through the Fed Open Market Committee. The committee is an important action-taking unit of the Fed to manage and control the monetary system.
Open Market: The term open market means secondary market here, where buying and selling took place on the securities issued initially in the past.

Many people do wonder how the Fed creates money out of nothing to purchase treasury securities, if not printing afresh!

The Fed Open Market Committee purchase Treasury bonds or bills from banks and other holders by releasing cash that circulates in the system and increase the money supply. The money or funds require for the purchase, just created by making an entry in the electronic books.

Treasury Bonds’ are the signed and secure long-term instruments acknowledging Government debt, to pay fixed rate of interest semi-annually. One must remember, these bonds represent Government debt and issued by treasury (U.S. Treasury) and not by Fed. The fed usually buy and sell them through open market operations, as the tool to influence monetary supply.

Money Creation out of nothing!

There are trillions of dollars worth of U.S. Bonds floating in the financial system. That Fed purchases them through FOMC as open market operation. Fed pays for bonds purchase with electronically crediting the seller bank, which means the credit entries are based on nothing tangible.

The Fed just creates credit balances in the electronic books but seller banks (those sold bonds) have all the facilities, similar to the actually deposited funds with the Fed. So as the basic facility, seller banks can lent out ‘ten times’ the actual amount of their deemed reserves to new borrowers, at specific interest. This way the Fed increase the credit flows in the economy but without printing or issuing new money into the system.

Let’s Conclude

Typically, US Federal likes to work behind the scene and avoid getting involved in the topics of debates, clarifying their position. So the central bank avoided public statements before taking any action as an independent regulatory authority yet answerable to the US congress.

The basic role of the Fed is to preserve financial or monetary stability and to avoid financial crisis. The role of Federal Reserve much highlighted during the present economic scenario, the times termed extraordinary by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke himself. The economic future of stability lies on the positives outcomes of the Fed direct actions.

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The Monetary System - I: Money Supply

money imageYou may come across much often to the headlines pointing out the current economic situation' as worst crisis since the Great depression. While the depression commonly attributed to October 1929's stock market crash, its primary cause as a matter-of-fact was ‘money’. The Great Depression had become more severe due to steady and dramatic decrease in the nation's money supply.

So, this must be a vital fact to remember that ‘the simple yet most important element in the study on financial system is ‘money’ and it is so basic element, people usually tend to overlook its utmost importance’.

Money Supply

The concept of money supply varies with the base instruments it includes, broadly money supply involves the sum of money representing amount of cash, electronic or bank deposits along with the paper currency as printed-paper notes and minted coins. More precisely Money supply includes ‘currency in circulation’ and demand deposits held at banks.

Central bank of particular nation controls money supply through various policy decisions. U.S. central bank’ The Federal Reserve controls the money supply through various policy instruments. The Federal Reserve publishes data on two money supply measures M1 and M2.

  • M1 as narrow term includes’ all currency (notes and coins) in circulation, all checkable deposits held at banks (bank money), and all traveler’s checks.
  • M2, somewhat broader measure of the supply of money, which includes all of M1 plus savings and time deposits held at banks.
An extensive measure of money supply data measure as M3 has cease to publish after Mar'06 on the Fed decision, as explained that M3 didn't convey more information about economic activity compared to M2, criticized widely by experts on the ground that M3 is the best description of how quickly the Fed is creating new money and credit.

Many economists believe that money supply plays a major role in the growth of the overall economy as it helps determining the level of interest rates, inflation and other economic growth triggers, and the Fed job is to control the monetary supply to help economy grows steadily without inflation.

Lastly, as mentioned above, you can briefly review the basic and initial concept for analyzing the present financial or monetary system, while taking account of its vital component as ‘money’. In the next article, we will review the role of U.S. Federal Reserve in the present financial system.
……To be continued.

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The Era of Paper Money System

The Era of Paper Money System – Investment Review

Paper MoneyMonetary System

In the present financial era, having enough paper money won’t guarantee that you will stay wealthy forever. Wealth can be defined more precisely as the ability to fulfill your wants or desires, something that has real value that increases with the costs.

In 1933, when U.S. terminated the use of gold standard for domestic currency, any constraint on the issue of base money was effectively removed. The State now has unlimited spending power in base money, and necessarily holds a monopoly on its issue.

Base Money

Base Money is the sum of total real cash in the economy except cash held by the Government or Central bank’ here real cash means currency notes and coins.

So money base doesn't include debt or near-money items such as commercial bonds or letters of credit and other measure of credit.

Money base or Monetary base, is the actual source of money supply printed by central bank that multiplied several times, as all financial positions in the economy have taken against the real money base, like credit generation, debt and near-money promises/bills, this become an ongoing process after it’s re-lent again and again by the banks and financial intermediaries.

Why people need to Invest?

The basic reason why people invest is that they believe investment will help them surviving the burden of inflation as well as taxes in the future course of life.

As pointed above, money as the normal state of affairs can be printed, nearly at will of the regulators and left in the hands of Government, suffering with the chronic problems of deficit they always spend more than they have. Inflation, as generally believed, hasn’t the sole reason for a decline in the value of money.

Money is just like number of paper pieces or an electronic copy in a computer that by general agreement gives its holder a claim on real wealth. In confusion, people only concentrate on the money and neglect those real things that actually sustain a good life.

The Paper Wealth Review

Despite money as currency, other categories of wealth, like bonds or share certificates or house documents etc. are also sheets of paper, that’s what the world witnessed during current financial crisis as the creditability of these sheets of paper turned out to be much lower from expected valuations, the end result was the collapse of big corporate giants due to wrongful and aggressive investment decisions.

Typically, the basic character of money assures fall in its value over time, as determined by various studies undertaken by economists and regulators. Now the question arises, what are the basic reasons behind fall? Keep reading…

U.S. Dollar and Fed Monetary Operations

US Dollar, as base money is quite a monopoly of the State, Federal Reserve issue sufficient amount of funds, with an objective to avoid any shortage of taxes paid by the public. In simple words, Fed must provide whatever reserves the ‘banking system’ needs to ensure the liquidity of the payment system.

From different financial activities carried out by Fed exclusively, a couple of important ones include, accumulation of bank reserves and decrease in aggregate bank reserves. When Fed needs to increase aggregate, it buys Treasury securities from the public through money markets and credits the seller banks with additional deposits at the Fed. Likewise, Fed sells Treasury securities to the public (through money markets) from its own portfolio when it needs to decrease aggregate bank reserves.

Although Bank reserves are only a small percentage of monetary liquidity, but these functions by Fed are vital to balance supply and demand for bank reserves at the Fed's determined standards, on very short-term or overnight inter-banks loans.

Monetary Cycle - The Ripple Effect

To study the monetary cycle let’s consider US dollar as base currency and inflation as an economic problem arise due to bulk supply of US dollar in the world markets.

So, with a decrease in dollar value due to inflation, export figures also decline and exporters get hit, then they (exporters) don’t invest in US debt and mounting debt leads to depression. In the Era of Dollar Standard as base money and with world liberalized markets and trades, the problem become global.

In brief, the cycle works in the following pattern:

  • The U.S. dollar’s value falls due to Federal Reserve policies like, extra liberal credit and artificially low level of interest rates.
  • Now, People cannot afford to purchase as many foreign goods.
  • Foreign suppliers and manufacturers, when unable to sell at previous levels, have piled up with excess inventory, which causes an inflationary outcome.
  • · Foreign exporters and their governments, in an effort to overcome the pressures of inflation, blame the fallen dollar for the problem and start or warn to start moving out of U.S. dollar instruments.
  • So, if debt returns to the U.S. the economic system is unable to absorb it. This can lead to a devastating recession of all times.

Let’s Conclude

When you review trends in monetary value, you can observe that income has not declined in figures. Well, that’s not enough as you can also observe that prices have risen faster than income, so with decreased buying power your real income potential also declined. Incomes have not been rising to match the price inflation. That’s what happening when the value of the money declined and this is the reason why you should study money and monetary system to make your investment decisions.

Preserving the value of the money or making it grow needs sound investment knowledge, experience, active approach and strategies, but that’s not an easy task for many. That is why I am writing these posts to help you and other readers like you. This is the whole purpose of this web-log: To give readers the strength of knowledge, so that they can use and learn for actual investment decisions.

Remember, learning and knowledge is of no use if you don’t practically implement them in real life situations. With experience you always learn with some mistakes’ as you know; to err is human, but repeating same mistakes that lead to failure is not an option.

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‘U.S. dollar’ – What Lies Ahead?

U.S. dollar and dragonAmid chaos of the present economic conditions and aggressive measures taken by the Government to overcome the financial crisis' have triggered caution on dollar position as global benchmark currency.

Nations holding huge US dollars surpluses intent to diversify their currency reserves with alternate global currency or mixed currencies basket other than US Dollar.

Determining Exchange Rate

Like commodities, Dollar exchange rate against other currencies are determined by demand and supply, In case of more buyers than sellers, the dollar will strengthen and in opposite situation, the dollar will weaken.

At present, liquidity shortage in US economy is keeping the dollar prices higher and currency markets are quite jittery. On 25th March 2009, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner sent the dollar plunging when said that he was open to China's proposal for a greater role for IMF’s (International Monetary Fund) Special Drawing Rights.

The Dollar affect

Governments of many developing countries consider large dollars holding as a hedge against the negative affects of economic crisis. They believe in the strength of the dollar over their own currency. As economic defensive measure, developing nations keep their currencies pegged to the dollar .

A pegged or, fixed rate is a rate Central Bank (As Government Authority) sets and maintains as an official currency exchange rate. A predetermined price set against major currencies (usually the U.S. dollar, but also other currencies such as the euro, the yen, or a basket of currencies). The central bank buys and sells its own currency in the foreign exchange market to maintain fixed rates in relation to the pegged currency.

Alternative Currency! - Fact or Melodrama

China’ which already counter blamed (in response to currency manipulation allegations) Americans for their higher spending and low savings, expressed strong concerns on dollar instability as a benchmark currency.

The concerned list includes central banks of China and Russia as well as large private investors and the Wealth Funds. Many of them from Asia, including the Chinese Funds’ those might lose billions in the current financial turmoil.

In fact, none other than China suffered the most after Americans due to current crisis. U.S. as a biggest exports market of China also provides rapid growth momentum to Chinese economy. That led some experts to assume Chinese concern little melodramatic.

Worried Dragon

With massive decline in export figures and over 23 million unemployed workers, it can make more economic sense for Beijing to let their currency (Yuan) depreciate, to make sure that its exports remain cheaper. What caution Chinese is the value of its huge investments in US Treasuries and other dollar dominated securities, with total sum around $2 trillion approx.

Counter Allegations

In review of Dollar/Yuan exchange rate, certain voices from US keep accusing China of currency manipulation. Many people wonder on lack of efforts from US administration to prevent currency manipulation, while China simply denies the US allegations.

The truth is, due to the absence of any international agreement, which require different nations to determine their exchange rates in a particular fashion, there is no straight way to stop the manipulation practice carried out by any country.

Conclusion

If you believe that the recent concerns regarding dollar prices are nothing more than a melodrama to pressurize US authorities to act harder for economic recovery, for the old golden days of higher consumer spending that helped developing nations to grow rapidly! You better think it again, because you could miss the complete picture, the desperate efforts of protection have already been started. The whistle blowers actually got hurt and much severely this time.

Dollar as global benchmark currency, also bring several systemic risks generated by domestic economic problems and policy mistakes from issuing country. Trust in the U.S. dollar dwindled because of huge current-account deficits, troubled banking sector and constrained monetary policy to overcome the current recession.

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The Fear Factor – ‘United We Blame!’

US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner The world economies are more connected than ever before due to markets globalization. Being a largest economy, the ongoing credit crisis that initially struck United States has spread and resulted into wider economic turmoil globally. The Consumer-driven American economy is deeply hurt from massive debt burden.

The biggest concern of U.S. now is the fear factor and confusion among Americans. After exploring different alternatives, any plan considered by the new government and authorities attract much uproar and blame game, thanks to the AIG bonus distribution from the bailout money, they got from the pockets of helpless taxpayers.

If AIG did act all by itself without letting people know initially, there are many not-for-good theories openly hyped by disturbed hypocrites to spread panic in desperation. Every average individual’ who loves to stay updated on current happenings, appear utterly confused and in constant fears of the catastrophic times ahead, as predicted by every Tom, Dick and Harry.

Ironically, the basic objective of critical evolution is to understand the problem, that helps in finding precise solution but what’s happening now is completely opposite.

After AIG Bonus row

After the messed up federal intervention into American International Group (AIG), an insurance giant, Both Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, while appeared before a House committee, demonstrated a need to regulate complex non-bank financial institutions just as banks, now regulated by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC). Geithner also urged for new powers to take over failing non-bank financial institutions, if their collapse might threatens the entire economy.

Recent Developments on Economic Crisis


Recently, US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner unveiled Public-Private Investment programs to clear toxic assets from the balance sheets of banks, by using public and private capital to absorb toxic assets clogging the banking system. The draft proposal though would require congressional approval.

Before going forward, quickly review the term ‘toxic assets’ with an example:

Toxic Assets:

Let's assume Tom has a loan of $250,000 from XYZ Bank for a house at 5% interest. The house has considered as collateral, which means XYZ Bank can have the possession of that house, in case Tom default the payments. Under normal conditions price of the house will increase and debt of the Tom decrease with regular payments.

As XYZ Bank has mortgage document that is an asset, banks have the right to sell the mortgages if they wish. Tom will then be required to pay the mortgage to new buyer, who will get the benefit of the 5% interest. This provides easy liquidity, in case XYZ Bank needs money.

Further, in case Tom doesn’t have the money to pay the mortgage, also the house price fell sharply to $100,000 due to recession and Tom still owes $200,000, if Tom defaults now, XYZ bank can only be able to recover a portion of their money back ($100,000) and has to bear loss ($200,000-$100,000 = $100,000). The mortgage document now becomes illiquid, as the house can't payback the mortgage. That’s how any mortgage has become a "toxic asset".

Brief description of Tim Geithner’s draft proposal

Market prices for many assets held by banks/financial institutions are either uncertain or depressed and put on immense pressure in bank balance sheets, credit remains a rare commodity.

Under draft Public-Private Investment Program, Federal Reserve will partner with private investors to buy troubled securities. FDIC (Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.) will guarantee the pools of real-estate loans. The drafted partnership plan aims to lure private investors and to offload as much as US$1 trillion in bad real estate assets.

Generally banks seem unwilling to dispose of their toxic assets during falling markets because values continue to plunge rapidly. Already, some mortgage-backed securities are reportedly trading around 40 cents on the dollar, and this is driving public concern about how toxic assets should be priced.

To attract banks to offload their toxic assets under lower valuations, the offloading bank could promise to return any profits arising from the offloaded assets after maturity. Investors buy toxic assets at discount prices with Treasury aid and in the hope that they'll recover some value over time.

Despite the criticism from different quarters regarding many loopholes in Treasury proposals to remove toxic assets from banks, it actually boosted much needed optimism that the economy can recover from the looming crisis by firm strategy and real time action by the authorities. Moreover stock markets also reacted favorably the day Geithner proposal made public.

Let’s conclude

Remember Fear and Insecurity always attract attention. In present crisis that affect masses in one-way or another, people are scared and there is no ready made solution to overcome the financial disaster.

Many stories presented by the hi-tech media are full of gloom and doom or emotional outbreaks. Even the political system, is casually sparring over solutions to the economic crisis, also pointed out by Warren Buffet recently.

As many of you already read my previous posts must know that I always put emphasis on self-study and analysis, to help you to evaluate the fair conclusions. You shouldn’t believe everything you’re told. Many conclusions provided freely, may not have the same effect on everyone and are often biased or influenced by available inputs and personal emotions.

Related Links:


http://www.ustreas.gov/
http://www.federalreserve.gov/
http://www.ino.com/
http://blog.creditcardflyers.com/

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Mighty Financial Regulators

mighty financial regulatorsThe mighty men finally decided to come forward to discuss and explain the course of action they took and are still undertaking to overcome the present financial and banking crisis.

The first one appeared on CBS’s “60 Minutes” (on Sunday March 15th 2009) is the US Federal Reserve Chairman ‘Ben Bernanke’. Now on coming Sunday (March 22nd 2009 at 7 p.m. ET/PT.) ‘President Barrack Obama’ will appear for interview on CBS’s “60 Minutes”, to talk about his first two months in office and also provide further updates on economic and financial scenario.

As Chairman Bernanke is concerned his opinions usually interest me. I wonder what’s going on in his mind under the severe pressure of his job, in toughest situations like these. Though it was his first appearance on TV but he regularly keep delivering Speeches that can be found on Federal Reserve Website.

With emergency powers to handle financial crisis, Chairman Bernanke aggressive approach of supplying trillion dollars attract criticism from certain quarters. But he possessed this trait to concentrate on a main issue with sound determination, to do whatever it takes. He accepts that to stabilize the financial and banking system fed keep supplying more money to preserve liquidity in credit markets.

It seems quite awry to even forecast for next month or so, amid uncertainties and scary economic data like unemployment rates that keep on rising and more people losing their jobs, but this is not a case if you are Federal Reserve Chairman, as you become the only one who knows all more precisely than anyone out there!

After fixing interest rates at lowest levels, Fed still striving to maintain enough liquidity by injecting large amount of cash into the system. As Bernanke believes that the basic action that Fed lacked during great depression of 1930’s was that no support has been given to save collapsing banks or declining liquidity,

He also pointed out before that if banks reduce lending in view of a recession, this directly hurts the economy and creates a vicious cycle in which the banks and businesses cease to grow amid high unemployment rates.

Well, the impact of the different measures undertaken by mighty regulators yield required results or not will soon be determined in coming months between second half to the end of current year.

Of course, Chairman Bernanke has concerned about the facts but he also pointed out that if regulators do stabilize the financial system successfully, this will restricts the decline, which eventually, will set the basis for recovery. Let’s hope this may happen soon.

Related Links:

http://www.ino.com/
http://www.federalreserve.gov/
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/03/12/60minutes/main4862191.shtml

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Explore and Analyze

explore and analyzeWhile approaching the second quarter of this year, let’s review current updates on financial crisis below, which helps you to understand its impact on fundamental elements of the global economy.

Lower Prices of Essential goods lead to higher prices in future

Prices are determined by demand and supply interaction. Future supplies depend on the present Investments made in particular segment of goods. So if the prices keep falling and future remain uncertain, the situation discourages new investments in particular sector and could result into much higher prices in the future. Presently, we are going through the similar phase.

The falling prices also hit the food products and raise concerns that this may withhold supplies due to eroded margins and suppliers left the market and look out for other alternatives to earn their living.

In its last update, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) warned that the prices have been falling so fast, that the world may soon face rigorous food shortages. Under current gloomy prospects for agricultural prices, higher input costs and difficult access to credit, there remain very little incentive to expand supplies.

Global Trade

The credit crunch has deeply rooted in the banking system and affects international economic activities. Global trading, either imports or exports involve some form of credit, for example, A company wants to import products from other company, the importer companies can acquire a letter of credit from the bank, that guarantees specific payment to be made upon receipt of the goods by importer.

Under present economic fiasco, acquiring trade credit has become far more expensive and even impossible sometimes, this happened in view of higher risk perception by banks. The situation, if not improve could lead to unexpected fall in trade flows.

The United States and China Governments seem to recognize the fact as they Announced $20 Billion in Finance Facilities that provide up to $38 Billion in Annual Trade Finances to assist their Trading (source: Press Release - U.S. DEPARTMENT OF TREASURY).

Deflationary Environment

Under deflationary environment with an excessive additional debt, any increase of money supply got lost in a liquidity trap, as debts have to be paid off in money that ironically gaining its real value. For consumers, deflation creates an incentive to delay purchases. For investors, deflation means that holding risk free assets like money now has a positive return.

Briefly, deflation means declining prices due to tougher money supply, that also includes tight credit availability, all these factors resulted into to the prices of the products start falling and purchases get delayed. Consumers postpone their purchases in expectation to buy lower prices in the future; this affects the suppliers, as they have to shut down their businesses and find other alternatives to earn their living. Over burdened economy succumb to a sudden halt.

Developed or Developing economy

The present Economic crisis emerged within the ‘developed economy’ of United States, although its cascading effects are devastating for world economic system.

The countries with developing economies might hurt badly due to capital outflows but this also provide them to reform their economic system by learning from the developed counterparts, these reforms can make them attractive investment destinations for corporations of the developed nations.

The complex phase

The study carried out to analyze actual problems and to determine the real culprits behind crisis helps us to discover the solutions we haven’t recognized before. Similarly the study of Great Depression (1929) has provided vital lessons to Governments and Central bankers on different factors of financial system and regulations required from authorities, U.S. economy currently facing problems that mainly related to money.

Huge money has been spent on politically inspired projects as opposed to economically productive ones and the results are obvious. Fed has the lowest ever interest rate levels to avoid banks keeping their funds idle with them to keep liquidity supply at comfortable levels, before that the systematic plan to reduce interest rates in a predetermining phase could be considered as foresightedness on its part.

Conclusion

The current economic scenario and its analysis with the available inputs not help enough to determine the better course of action. Yet one thing that can’t be overlooked that the feedback on the whopping stimulus provided by the government haven’t yet considered in the analysis as its outcome can only be known in the mid or end of the second half of the current year.

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Economic Review – Financial Stimulus Packages

“Just let your fears and failures become your guiding force to understand the things with whole new perspective, grief or outcry won’t help anyone. Just make an effort, as United we can Share what we know or want to know.”

Economic Stimulus reviewWhile responding to the fiscal crisis governments of many countries follow the track of US Government (though may not hyped as much) by supplying massive amount of money in the system. Now the question arises, how to finance this supply? As the requirement of the monetary aids keep increasing,

Let’s review just two possibilities that the US Regulators could have been considered while planning to face the economic crisis with stimulus packages and you can review the concerns and why the government possibly chose them during particular economic conditions, despite being criticized for doing so.

· Issuing bonds to raise money
· Printing Money to finance Government.

First, by issuing large quantity of Government bonds.

To finance the huge fiscal burden during financial crisis and termed as rescue financing by the Government. The Government has started issuing huge quantities of government bonds.

Concern – Interest Rates
If the governments raise money from the bonds, they must strive with borrowers within private sector. This may result into rise in interest rates, as Government targets the investments over private sector debt instruments and the better interest and security surely attract more investments.

The Actual effect – Set off
The present uncertainty triggered caution among investors, as they prefer to hold Treasury securities. Therefore as happening in US economy’ the Government haven’t need to do much efforts to raise finance from debts/bonds, that’s how interest rates remain unaffected with the respective move.

Secondly, With Central Bank printing more money.

The Central bank as US Federal Reserve, always remain the Government powerhouse to control or influence the economy with its exclusive powers. Printing new money is one the important function that solely carried through Fed. No doubt if the Government needs, the fed definitely purchase the debt raised by the Government. Here lies a concern -

Concern – Inflation
As the Fed keep supplying whole lot of money for the Government crisis management programs, with options like’ buying the Government bonds. As there is too much to absorb and if Fed keep on purchasing Government debt/bonds with new printed money the enormous increase of money supply result into high inflation figures.

The Current Situation – Contrary Moves
Rather than inflation the primary concern of the economy is deflation, which is an opposite of inflation and usually hurt more severely than inflation. As ‘Inflation depicts the price rise, Deflation represents falling prices.

‘The Deflation and its effects’ is a broad concept to study separately but for quick brief you can consider deflation as falling prices due to reduced supply of money, also include unavailability to get easy credit, further the prices of the goods start falling and purchases get delayed in view to buy at expected lower prices in near future and this effects many suppliers, as they have to close their businesses. Economy comes to a sudden halt with a bleak long-term picture and uncertainty of the future growth.

Thus, as the Fed prints more money to buy government bonds to provide financial aid to save economy, this actually help positively by creating some inflation as a contrary move to avoid deflation.


Like it or hate it the bulky stimulus packages are the present reality. What mentioned above can help you to understand and analyze the important part of basic assumptions on which the Government stimulus package might build upon. There are two sides to every story. So you can access the real situation, if only you consider both.


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Property Investment Review

Are you considering Investment in Property?

Investing in PropertyPurchasing property, as an Investment option is a crucial decision due to the higher stakes it involves - whether the economy flying upward or experiencing fall during recession. Though during recession, you can get a favorable deal if you consider purchasing property or real estate. Well, there are always some risks involved.

Now the question arises’ How do investors evaluate that they’re getting the profitable real estate deal in the period of recession? Today I’ll share some factors that you can review before going forward with your investment, but before that let me quickly point out couple of assumptions regarding the investment in property:

If anyone thinks, Investing in real estate is pretty similar as taking residence house on the mortgage or lease of the 25 to 30 years or lifetime! Let me make it clear right now that you are thinking absolutely wrong and its nowhere around the topic of this article and here are the couple of simple reasons: First, the present credit crunch make it really tough to acquire credit, the massive defaults freeze the credit flows worldwide. The second reason is that buying your residence house with all your present as well as future means to payback, makes it a liability and not an asset!

Here is a simple rule: An investment must have done with the view to earn profits in limited period of time and of course not in a lifetime! Don’t come undone with biased expectations.

Going forward’ When you try to explore the potential of the real estate investment, your abilities to make the better decision lies completely on your analytical talent and planned action strategy similar to any form of investment decision.

Pre-define checklists

To make yourself certain, you can pre-define your expectations, budget, time-period and other personal priorities. Making checklist really help you by reminding not to avoid important factors to review those facilitate the reasonable analysis.


Avoid making Obsessive decisions.

As mentioned above, defining priorities and making checklists help you making confident decisions. Flexibility is the other important factor, which helps you keep some room for any adjustment as the situation varies. You should act rationally with your senses and take a broader outlook for property and also for anything you are planning to purchase. Review your decision after 24 hours with the fresh approach before a final go.

Your expectations should be realistic enough and well within your budget. Remember we are witnessing recession here. Don’t be over-confident during recession, because who knows’ how long will it take.

Ask yourself few practical questions.

What is so special about the respective deal? Do you ask for advice from experts or suggestions from friends or family having some experience? Do they think the same way? However, you do not need to be a sheep of a herd as you cannot move forward with all opinions or recommendations but you will find the answers to some vital queries you missed unintentionally.

Do some calculations!

You need to do some calculations to determine few important figures. One of the most important one is calculating intrinsic value. This doesn’t matter you buying property for any purpose or for someone else and for other reasons like resell or rent or to live etc. You need to be well aware about intrinsic value of the money. Intrinsic value of money can be calculated by adding expected future returns on an investment and by subtracting its present worth. If money for the house can be use to expand your business or returns, you better concentrate on what you are good in doing.

Proceeding with Real estate short sale?

Short sale carried out in case lender agreed for specific discount on the payable loan, when the sales value of an asset fall short of the pending credit amount. Some people consider pursuing a short sale to get a better deal.

When you are planning to purchase property, review the price twice when appeared too low for particular location by seeking help from agent to inquire regarding short sale. This is vital, as you might not make an offer for short sale property as regulatory agencies cease to govern this heterogeneous transaction.

All that glitters is not gold

During recession, property sellers do know that they won’t be able to fairly sell their property. This concern kept them to wait little longer before coming back to the market. Some individuals and dealers working as full-time bargain hunters quickly bought favorable deals well before you are able to know about those.

Generally it has been assumed that recession is an excellent time to buy property, as sellers usually get the lower side, you must remember that ‘all that glitters is not gold’, You need to be as careful and cautious as ever.

Conclusion

Your decision should not be smoky while investing property or any other asset. The Best trick is to go for the lowest price, which is certainly more reachable during economic recession, but don’t forget that the lowest prices are not always the best. Be suspicious, raise queries and find your answers.

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Review Credit and How Does it Work?

Credit cards

Credit may seem like a trifle and fickle thing for few of us, but it can be demystified and used to help better your credit rating and score. Credit is when you borrow money against your own name in order to make payments on an item of high price or value.

The highest forms of borrowing are often vehicles and homes, though jewelry, electronics, recreational vehicles and many other items are available on credit, even furnishings and home goods can be bought on credit. With the expansion of credit over the past few decades stores have cropped up their own store credit cards that you can use to purchase items in their stores and on their web sites on credit.

The positive aspect of credit is the ability to finance something you cannot immediately afford and the option to build a solid credit rating, or name, for yourself for future borrowing power for the larger items like a house, which for 98% of people requires a loan. This borrowing power can also be extremely useful in the time of emergency when funds are low due to job loss, medical problems, injury, catastrophe or a death of an income earner. Borrowing allows people to get through these tough times without sacrificing their quality of life.

The negative aspect of credit is that it has allowed people to live outside their means and every day millions of people find themselves further in debt. While, this funds credit card companies, it can bring great hardship to those experiencing high levels of debt. Credit, when used wisely, can offer opportunities where there are none and help you find a greater level of borrowing in the future and help during a present situation, but when used unwisely can push you into a worse financial situation and negatively affect your future borrowing power.

When you turn eighteen it seems that every bank and financial institution in the country suddenly has your personal information and wants to offer you “free money”, this is a dangerous time and you should avoid a good majority of these offers. It is wise to open one account, but only charge during a month what you are able to pay off completely before the due date. One or two open revolving accounts that are constantly in good standing offer a great way to build good credit. This can also be used when someone is bouncing back from bad credit or a bankruptcy, but can also be a slippery slope if you have not broken your bad spending habits.

Your credit report offers a reporting mechanism through three major agencies (like Equifax, Experian and TransUnion.) that gathers account, financial and personal information about you from the creditors and bills you have to form together a credit rating and thus a credit score that represents your ability to pay debt, your timeliness in paying your bills and how often you move or change jobs. While, much of this information may not seem connected it is all used to gauge whether or not you are a person worthy of credit, a job or even renting an apartment to.

So, it’s important to set a good credit rating and practices from the start as credit impacts you your entire life. For some bad credit and financial practices can lead to a bankruptcy which allows the debtor to wipe their debt clean, except for a few different areas (like school loans, taxes due and others) and start over. While, this may seem like a dream to many, it sets you back and means you not only have a note on your credit report showing the bankruptcy and your inability to pay any of your bills, but now you have essentially no credit and have to start over as if you were eighteen again.

Regardless of how you choose to handle your credit and your potential borrowing power, it’s important to take the time to understand the credit rating and reporting process, not to mention the staying power they both have. Credit ratings, scores and reports are essential to the quality of life and options available to individuals and can have a direct effect on your status or level of success throughout your life. Take the time to understand these things and work to set your self up for better financial success.

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EPS Manipulation Review

EPS Manipulation Review and Solution...

EPS Manipulation AnalysisProfessional Manipulation might be the concurrent practice in every field or profession, with objectives like positive or negative, legal or illegal and from sports to stocks.

Financial analysis follows systematic and straightforward approach, yet wider components have to be considered while doing financial research. Every analyst has his/her own set of parameters to evaluate the performances to take decisions. As financial has been carried out with predefined input that can be available from different resources like Corporate Financial results, Investor meetings, Discussions with Analysts covering particular companies, media and other.

The input has been provided obligatory on the predefined formats around the world, but thanks to the accounting tricks that the given data can be smoky after manipulation for personal interests. Let’s review one of the manipulation tactics to get you aware how to avoid its negative outcomes.

Today we delve into the Manipulation of EPS or Earning per share’ the very basic tool that most of the investors both rookies and pros use to calculate the potential earnings worth of any company. I have already discussed about P/E or price-to-earnings ratio in one of the previous article here. EPS is the vital component of P/E calculation.

EPS represent after-tax earnings over a certain period of time, calculated quarterly as well as yearly by dividing Net profits by number of shares. GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) make sure that EPS have to be provided in financial statements under legal obligation.

Manipulated EPS practice usually met the legal requirement but not truly reflect earnings position of the respective company. Any variation in EPS or Earning guidance trigger caution among expert investors due to the uncertainty of the future and the fact that management can easily manipulate the earning and its guidance, while secure their position on the plea of uncertainty. Of course manipulated earnings mislead innocent investors as they can make bad investment decisions.

Basically EPS is widely calculated with guidance and future earnings forecast to determine the targeted share price in specific time frame. The calculated figures than compared with the past figures during same time period, for example’ March 2009 annualized EPS forecast is compared with actual March 2008 EPS to ascertain the company growth prospects.

During bullish market management can give optimistic forecasts, as market wants accelerated stocks with fast-growing EPS, contrary to bear markets when they may provide lower guidance so that they can out beat the forecasts during earnings season. It is vital to evaluate management expectations or guidance when these expectations are too optimistic or too pessimistic. Ironically this is something that many investors forgot to do on number of times in the past.

Management team also considers manipulation of financial statements to report profits in a format that will help them earn their bonuses. You might not aware but it is fairly normal to assume that the income statements overstate profits. There are different ways for any management intentionally uses manipulation tactics to boost income figures, like delaying payable to input suppliers, selling securities held or restructuring reserves by reversing the amount transferred during prior quarters or even showing the inventories laying with the sales channels as accrued income deemed as final sales, for example:

For increasing the Income figures, management of the company can offer sales channels or retailers any incentives such as extended money back guarantee on unsold stock of goods/inventories. This way finished goods inventories move into the distribution channel and the credit sales have been registered in company books and accrued/outstanding earnings figures increased, but actual cash might never be received, because of the inventories returned as per terms of guarantee, this may increase sales in one quarter or so.

Now you probably start thinking, how can we evaluate the real earning figures of particular company to avoid being invested with manipulated figures?

Well, the solution is quite simple in comparison to the critical problem of EPS manipulation. You can always determine the actual earnings position with help of operating cash flows. Operating cash flows figure consists of net Cash inflows or outflows from operation activities, simply How much cash the company has generated from its actual business activities and not included cash flows from supplementary activities like investments etc.

Practically operating cash flows consists of net income from income statement adjusted after adding or subtracting non operating cash inflows or outflows, Outflow like depreciation on asset is a non-cash charge so got added back, the same treatment is vetted to pending receivable (cash inflows accrued but not received yet), payable, interest or dividends and stock inventories.

I hope you are now able to do your analysis more precisely to make investment in particular stock as operating cash flows are very easy to calculate, anyone can calculate cash flows quickly and this you should always do, because cash flows are much better option from window dressed EPS.

There are also other forms of manipulation activities that I’ll write about some other time, so don’t forget to stay tuned. Now while concluding this article, let me remind you as always that whenever you are making investment decisions, remember its your hard earned money you must make sure you do your homework well before putting it in any venture.

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